Drought

Presentations

Drought Status Update & Monitoring Technical Committee Activities
Erinanne Saffell, State Climatologist & Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair 

Arizona has experienced persistent above-average temperatures since January 2025, which was the last month with below-average temperatures. February–September 2025 ranked as the second hottest February to September on record. October 2025 to March 2026 ranked as the hottest October to March on Record. April ranked as the 12th warmest April on record, continuing the pattern of sustained heat. January–September 2025 was the 11th driest January to September on record, despite a wetter-than-average September. Early in the current water year, October and November were exceptionally wet with October precipitation at 175% of normal and November precipitation at 190% of normal. Conditions shifted afterward, with December–April receiving only 46% of normal precipitation statewide. Water year precipitation (October–April) totaled 5.59 inches, or 81% of normal, indicating that early-season gains have diminished.   Significant snow events in November and early January temporarily improved snow water equivalent (SWE) levels. Hot conditions, particularly the record-warm December and a very warm March, accelerated snowmelt. By spring, most Arizona basins had declined to the minimum 10th percentile range, reflecting poor snowpack conditions. Expansion of extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) short-term drought began in spring 2025. Wetter conditions in May–June provided temporary relief. Hot, dry conditions in summer led to additional drought expansion. The wet fall of 2025 became Arizona’s 9th wettest fall on record, temporarily reducing drought impacts. Dry conditions returned in winter and spring, and December–April ranked as the 16th driest on record, resulting in renewed drought expansion. Arizona's long-term drought conditions have persisted since approximately 1994. Temperatures have steadily increased over that period while precipitation has generally remained below average. The 48-month period from April 2022–March 2026 ranked as Arizona’s hottest on record and the 27th driest, reinforcing ongoing long-term drought concerns. 

2026 Weather Outlook
Mark O’Malley, National Weather Service & Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair

Conditions entering last fall were favorable due to strong rainfall and improved soil moisture, but precipitation declined sharply afterward, resulting in a dry winter. The weakening La Niña contributed to winter dryness, and ocean conditions are now shifting toward El Niño. Forecasters expressed very high confidence (>95%) in El Niño development, with a ~65% chance of a strong to very strong event. Warm sea surface temperatures off Baja of Mexico can be a source region of moisture for the monsoon, support tropical storm activity, and increase the potential for late-summer and fall tropical moisture into Arizona. However, stronger El Niño conditions do not guarantee stronger local impacts, as seen in the relatively limited effects of the 2016 event.

Arizona is expected to remain warmer than average, consistent with long-term warming of ~0.7°F per decade over the past 50 years, with no indication of that trend ending. Historical data show no consistent relationship between developing El Niño conditions and Arizona monsoon totals, which remain highly variable. In general, developing El Niño years reduce the likelihood of extreme drought but do not reliably produce very wet monsoons. The most likely outcome is near to slightly above average monsoon precipitation, with possible late season enhancement from tropical moisture. Fall precipitation may be more consequential than summer rainfall, improving soil moisture and supporting more efficient snowmelt and runoff in 2027. Forecasts favor above normal precipitation in fall more than during the monsoon. Winter offers the most optimistic signal, as El Niño conditions are often associated with wetter winters in Arizona, though strong events do not consistently produce the wettest outcomes, and Upper Colorado Basin responses remain variable.

The overall outlook provides cautious optimism. A developing El Niño and warmer ocean temperatures could improve precipitation chances later this year and next winter, potentially helping restore soil moisture and improve runoff efficiency. However, significant uncertainty remains, and stronger El Niño conditions do not guarantee substantial drought relief.
 

Colorado River Water Supply Update
James Heffner, Senior Hydrogeologist, Colorado River Management, Arizona Department of Water Resources 

As of May 3, 2026 reservoir conditions across the Upper Colorado River Basin continue to decline, with Navajo at ~62% full, Blue Mesa at ~43%, and Flaming Gorge reduced from about 81% to ~78% due to ongoing Reclamation releases supporting Lake Powell and environmental flows, which began ramping up in late April 2026 and are now tapering. Lake Powell is currently storing about 5.6 million acre-feet (MAF) (24% capacity) and Lake Mead is just over 8 MAF (31%), with both reservoirs at levels similar to spring 2022 despite that year occurring after a dry period rather than during an ongoing dry year. The water year began with above median precipitation and inflows in October and November but transitioned to persistent warmth and dryness through winter and spring, resulting in conditions now tracking closer to 2021, with inflows between 2021 (second driest on record) and 2002 (driest on record). Snowpack is in record-low territory, with basin-wide snow water equivalent (SWE) peaking early in March at around 9 inches and remaining below both 2002 and 2021 levels. These conditions are reflected in runoff forecasts, with April–July inflows projected at roughly 800,000 acre-feet (AF), below the previous record low of 964,000 AF set in 2002. Total water-year inflows are forecast at approximately 3.27 MAF, with early-season moisture providing only a modest offset to otherwise extremely dry conditions.

Seasonal outlooks continue to indicate below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures across much of the basin, reinforcing low runoff potential. Operational projections suggest Lake Powell could fall below power pool as early as July under unadjusted operations. With adjusted operations, including up to 1 MAF in additional releases from the Upper Initial Units and reduced releases from Glen Canyon Dam down to 6 MAF, Lake Powell is projected to remain above power pool.  Subsequently, the release of 6 MAF from Glen Canyon Dam results in lower elevations in Lake Mead, with projected end of year elevations near 1,030-1,035 feet. 
 

Salt River & Verde River Watersheds Water Supply Update
Stephen Flora, Senior Hydrologist, Salt River Project (SRP)

Following the record low inflows observed during water year 2025 (205,000 acre-feet (AF), approximately 30% of median), SRP entered water year 2026 with total reservoir storage at about 1.2 million acre-feet (53% capacity). Conditions initially improved as strong precipitation events in October and November generated approximately 200,000 AF of runoff, more than 200% of median for that period, and increased Verde River system storage from 46% to nearly 70%. These early season conditions provided favorable soil moisture and runoff efficiency entering winter however, conditions turned dry and warm, with very limited snowpack and almost no meaningful precipitation in March, which is typically a critical runoff month. Snowpack ultimately peaked at roughly half of median on the Verde River and one-third of median on the Salt River before rapidly melting during a warm and dry late winter and early spring period. While water year precipitation reached approximately 10 inches (102% of normal), nearly 70% occurred during the fall rather than during the critical winter runoff season. January–April runoff totaled only about 135,000 AF, approximately one-third of median, resulting in projected winter season inflows of roughly 150,000–158,000 AF (35% of median), ranking among the 13th lowest on record. As of early May 2026, total SRP reservoir storage remained near 55% full, which is slightly better than the start of the water year but slightly below median for this time of year. Due to dry conditions, water deliveries transitioned from the Verde River to the Salt River system in March and are expected to continue through mid-October. SRP total groundwater use for 2026 increased to 225,000 AF and is likely to increase again in 2027.

Impacts of Drought on Hydropower – Irrigation and Electrical Districts Association of Arizona
Jordy Fuentes, Executive Director, Arizona Power Authority

Ongoing drought conditions and reduced water releases along the Colorado River are creating major challenges for hydropower generation and the financial sustainability of dam operations. Hydropower revenues fund most operational costs tied to the river system, including federal salaries, dam maintenance, environmental programs, salinity control, security, and recreation services. As reservoir elevations continue to decline, there are few remaining management options beyond further reducing water levels.
At Hoover Dam, most of the older turbines cannot operate below elevation 1,035 feet. Of the 17 turbines at the dam, only four currently functioning “wide head” turbines would remain operational at that level, reducing generating capacity from about 2,030 megawatts to only 382 megawatts, a loss of roughly 70–80% of total capacity. If Lake Mead drops below elevation 1,035 feet, Hoover hydropower could become too expensive for customers because fixed operating costs would be spread across far less power generation. Utilities could choose to purchase cheaper power elsewhere, potentially leaving the federal government responsible for covering operational costs. Current modeling suggests reservoir levels could fall below this threshold as early as next spring despite conservation efforts, largely because of runoff conditions in the Colorado River Basin.
Similar problems are developing at Lake Powell, where reduced water releases intended to protect reservoir elevations are also reducing hydropower generation. Proposed release levels for next year, potentially as low as 5–7 million acre-feet, may also be unsustainable for long-term hydropower viability. Overall, worsening drought and declining reservoir levels are placing both upper and lower basin hydropower systems under significant long-term risk.
 

2026 Fire Season Outlook
Tiffany Davila, Public Affairs Officer, Arizona Department of Forestry & Fire Management

In 2025, about 1,600 wildfires burned over 331,629 acres statewide, with acreage increasing 17% from 2024 largely because of the massive Dragon Bravo Fire. For 2026 year-to-date (YTD), roughly 300 fires have burned about 6,000 acres, including a notable river bottom fire in Buckeye, the Hazen fire that burned 1,200 acres, an unusually large river bottom fire especially for early May. Officials expect above normal fire potential beginning in southeastern Arizona and spreading northward due to prolonged dryness, low snowpack, above average temperatures, drought-stressed forests, bark beetle infestations, and abundant dead vegetation and grasses, all of which increase the risk of intense fires. Fire activity is developing about 30 days earlier than normal, with conditions resembling what is typically seen in June. Agencies across local, state, federal, and tribal jurisdictions are coordinating resources, prepositioning crews and equipment, and will utilize the interstate partnership, the Great Plains Interstate Fire Compact, for additional support if necessary. Officials emphasized that wildfire season has no fixed end date and will depend heavily on monsoon conditions, particularly whether storms bring meaningful rainfall or mainly dry lightning. To improve response capabilities, Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management (DFFM) has deployed seven new AI wildfire detection cameras that provide 24/7 monitoring and real-time smoke alerts. DFFM also recently opened a modernized 7,000-square-foot wildfire dispatch center funded through HB 2001 following the Telegraph Fire.

Recommendation
Arizona remains in a short- and long-term drought with most of the state experiencing some level of drought condition from abnormally dry to extreme drought. Despite periods of short-term improvement from wet weather events, Arizona remains challenged by persistent heat, below-average precipitation, reduced snowpack, and intensifying long-term drought conditions. The Drought Interagency Coordinating Group unanimously recommends that both drought declarations (PCA 99006) and (Executive Order 2007-10) be kept in place. 

Spring 2026 ICG Drought Recommendation

Presentations

• Drought Status & Monitoring Technical Committee Activities  - Erinanne Saffell, State Climatologist, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair
• 2026 Weather Outlook - Mark O’Malley, National Weather Service, Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Co-chair
• Colorado River Water Supply Update - James Heffner, Arizona Department of Water Resources
• Salt River & Verde River Watersheds Water Supply Update - Stephen Flora, Salt River Project
• Impacts of Drought on Hydropower - Jordy Fuentes, Arizona Power Authority
• 2026 Wildfire Outlook - Tiffany Davilla, Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management 

Spring 2026 ICG Meeting Recording