January 8, 2026

In attendance: Arizona State Climatologist, NOAA (NWS), Representatives from ADWR, Desert Research Institute/Western Regional Climate Center, Town of Queen Creek, University of Arizona Corporative Extension, Arizona Game and Fish, Scottsdale Water, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Courthouse News, Arizona Department of Emergency and Military Affairs, Gila River Indian Community, Salt River Project, USDA Farm Service Agency, Apache Junction Water District.

Arizona Short- term and Quarterly Long-term Drought Status:

• From January–November 2025, Arizona ranked as the 3rd hottest and 33rd driest on record. The monsoon season was mostly dry, except in Yuma and parts of Maricopa County, with one major slow-moving storm in September causing deadly flooding in Gila and Maricopa counties. That single event significantly boosted monthly precipitation totals. Subsequent storms in October and November made meteorological fall (Sept–Nov) the 9th wettest on record, with Maricopa and Yuma Counties experiencing their wettest fall ever.
• Despite wetter fall conditions, December 2025 was exceptionally hot and largely dry. Phoenix and Tucson recorded their hottest December on record, while Flagstaff had its second hottest.
• Regarding short-term drought, extreme (D3) drought peaked in April 2025, covering nearly 60% of the state, with exceptional (D4) drought affecting 12%. Thanks to fall precipitation, conditions improved by December, and all exceptional (D4) short-term drought was eliminated, with some reduction in extreme (D3) drought.
• For long-term drought, Arizona continues to experience widespread extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought conditions. The state traditionally uses blended indices (SPI and SPEI) that account for both precipitation and temperature, but the tool used to produce those maps is no longer available. However, there are ongoing efforts to find a replacement long-term drought mapping tool.
•  Temporary alternatives show that nearly every county (except Yuma) has had below-average precipitation over the past five years, and temperatures over that same period rank as the 6th hottest on record statewide. These sustained high temperatures continue to intensify long-term drought impacts. 
• Contact: Erinanne Saffell, Arizona State Climate Office: [email protected].
 

Objective Maps Weather Update:

• Despite a notably wet fall there are continued drought concerns in Arizona across multiple time scales. While September–November was extremely wet, producing a corridor of above-normal precipitation, the rest of the year was largely dry, especially in southern and eastern Arizona leaving calendar-year precipitation below 70% of normal overall. The wet fall provided short-term relief but did not offset broader dryness.
• Since the start of the water year on October 1, most of the state has been wetter than normal, which has improved soil moisture conditions. However, this benefit has not translated into snowpack, which remains very poor statewide. Following a promising storm in late November, December, likely the warmest on record statewide, brought little precipitation, mostly as rain rather than snow. Current snow water equivalent is tracking similarly to last year’s weak winter, and no near-term improvement is expected, limiting the potential for spring runoff despite favorable soil conditions.
• Drought concerns extend beyond Arizona, as much of the Colorado River Basin and western U.S. remain below normal, with many basins in the single digits of median snowpack, a situation worsened by La Niña conditions. 
• Short-term drought indicators (SPI) show improvement in areas that benefited from fall rainfall, particularly from Yuma to Coconino counties, but negative SPI persists in eastern and southern Arizona.
• Longer-term indicators reinforce ongoing concern. Over 24-, 36-, and 48-month periods, drought conditions have persisted or worsened, with recent wet events insufficient to reverse deficits accumulated over several years. 
• Contact Mark O’Malley at [email protected] with comments and feedback regarding the US Drought Monitor maps.

U.S. Drought Monitor Overview:

• The USDM is a weekly composite drought map, released every Thursday, that provides a current snapshot of drought conditions across the United States. It is not a forecast, nor does it focus solely on short- or long-term drought, but instead integrates multiple timescales, indicators, and drought impacts. Drought intensity is categorized from D0 to D4, with colors reflecting increasing severity and tied to percentile rankings of various indicators.
• The map is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), NOAA, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, using a blend of objective physical data (such as precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow) and subjective expert input from across the country. Drought impacts are also classified as short-term, long-term, or both, which are reflected on the map.
• Currently, the USDM is authored by nine national authors from NDMC, NOAA, NCEI, USDA, and NASA (with new NASA authors undergoing training). Authors rotate as lead roughly three times per year. In addition to the authors, the process relies heavily on state and local contributors, with more than 400 experts nationwide providing input through a listserv. Each state submits recommendations, typically coordinated by state climatologists or National Weather Service staff. 
• The mapping process itself is conducted in ArcGIS, where authors may integrate 100 or more data layers, including SPI, soil moisture, USGS streamflow gauges, and other indicators, most of which are displayed as percentile-based metrics. While this flexibility allows for a comprehensive assessment, differences in how states submit maps and justifications make it difficult to maintain efficiency and uniformity.
• Drought assessment varies by region and sector, with some states emphasizing water resources and others agriculture, underscoring the complexity of producing a single national drought map.
• The U.S. Drought Monitor integrates many different perspectives and datasets to assess drought, noting that drought can be defined and prioritized differently depending on regional needs and sectoral impacts. Some states focus more on water resources, while others emphasize agriculture, requiring flexibility in how drought conditions are evaluated. The USDM attempts to balance short-term conditions such as precipitation over the past week or month, with longer-term indicators, often looking back one to two years, and in some cases monitoring persistent drought signals extending five to six years.
• A wide range of indicators are used, including precipitation across multiple time scales, temperature anomalies, snowpack, soil moisture, streamflow, groundwater levels, and reservoir storage. While reservoir levels are considered, they are interpreted cautiously because management decisions can obscure true drought signals. Composite drought indices developed by the National Drought Mitigation Center have recently been incorporated and are particularly useful because they integrate multiple indicators and timeframes. In addition, the USDM incorporates observed drought impacts, including agricultural, hydrologic, rangeland, and ecological effects. Ecological impacts, such as forest health decline, often reflect long-term drought stress and may lag behind climatic indicators.
• All of these datasets and observations are evaluated using a “convergence of evidence” approach, where indicators are not equally weighted and their relevance may change by season, region, and drought type. For example, monsoon rainfall in Arizona can lead to short-term improvements in rangeland conditions and streamflows, but may not significantly alleviate long-term drought such as in southeastern Arizona.
• Key drought monitoring challenges in Arizona include complex terrain that drives high spatial and temporal variability in precipitation, gaps in long-term monitoring networks, and the need for more automated precipitation gauges capable of measuring both rain and snow. Additional high-elevation monitoring is increasingly important as warming temperatures raise snow levels, underscoring the need for improved observations to better assess drought conditions across the state.
• There is a great need for denser, well-maintained monitoring networks, particularly those that span elevation gradients, to better reflect Arizona’s highly variable climate. Gaps in station coverage increase uncertainty in drought analyses and interpolation, underscoring where expanded monitoring would strengthen drought tracking and inform decision-making.
• Contact: David Simeral, Associate Research Climatologist, U.S. Drought Monitor Author, Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center.

Salt River Project (SRP) Reservoir Updates:

• After a very dry winter in 2025 with record-low inflows, fall 2025 brought significant precipitation in mid-October and mid-November, with smaller events in late December and early January. Although nearly all precipitation fell as rain rather than snow, average watershed precipitation reached 6.83 inches (172% of normal) which is already more than half of last water year’s total. This amount is near the threshold where runoff efficiency typically improves, providing a positive signal heading into winter.
• Precipitation was especially favorable over the Verde watershed. Streamflow responded well, with strong flow increases on the Salt River in October and on the Verde in November, including peaks near 10,000 cfs on the Verde. 
• Improved soil moisture, particularly across the Verde, Rim, and central Arizona, has left the watershed primed for efficient runoff. Fall inflows totaled roughly 200,000 acre-feet, nearly equal to inflows from the previous 12 months combined.
• However, snowpack remains minimal.  While recent storms have added a few inches of snow, overall snow water equivalent remains low, and future runoff depends heavily on winter storm frequency and timing. 
• SRP reservoir conditions improved during the fall. Verde system storage increased significantly, allowing SRP to shift water deliveries from the Salt to the Verde. While Roosevelt remains below half full, there is substantial remaining capacity. If winter storms favor the Verde, reservoirs there could potentially fill; if not, overall storage gains may be limited.
• As of January 6, 2026, SRP reservoir total storage is at 57% (108% of normal) and conditions over the next several months will largely determine water supply outcomes for 2026.
• SRP total groundwater use for 2026 was increased to 225,000 AF.
• Contact: Stephen Flora, Salt River Project.

Colorado River Basin Status:

• As of December 30, 2025, the total Colorado River system was 38% full or at 21.98 million acre-feet (MAF), compared to 42% full last year. Lake Powell remains very low (28% full), while Lake Mead is nearly one-third full (33% full).
• Precipitation is near median so far but most headwaters remain below average. Snowpack is lagging, similar to weak years like 2021–2024, due to warm and dry conditions.
• Streamflows briefly improved in October but have since returned to below-average levels.
• Short-term precipitation signals are mixed, with no strong wet signal for most headwaters. Longer-term flow estimates align with below-average inflow expectations.
• The most probable end of Calendar Year 2025 (CY2025) projected elevation for Lake Powell is 3,539 ft (28% full) and the probable minimum projected elevation is 3,536 ft.
• The most probable end of Calendar Year 2026 (CY2026) projected elevation for Lake Powell is 3,519 ft (23% full) and the probable minimum projected elevation is 3,480 ft.
• Lake Powell’s elevation projections depend on hydrology and operations. Projections assume no guaranteed protection of Powell’s power pool, though operations may change under drought response agreements, including potential release adjustments if conditions worsen
• The most probable end of CY2025 projected elevation for Lake Mead is 1,062 ft (33% full), the probable minimum projected elevation is 1,060 ft. Lake Mead dead pool is 895 ft.
• The most probable end of CY2026 projected elevation for Lake Mead is 1,057 ft, the probable minimum projected elevation is 1,053 ft. Lake Mead dead pool is 895 ft.
• Contact: James Heffner, Arizona Department of Water Resources. See the most up to date Colorado River Conditions here.

ADWR Drought Monitoring Wells:

•    Drought index well locations span across five different watersheds with a total of nine drought monitoring wells. Each well is equipped with a transducer that ADWR maintains and collects water level data four times daily. Water levels are ranked by percentile against historical records.
•    Upper Verde/Big Chino wells: The Verde River well MW-4F1 current depth to water is 19.24 ft, 0.67 ft below median. There was a brief rise from a late–water year flow event, then a decline. The Del Rio Springs Verde River well recorded a depth to water of 14.09 ft which is 0.25 ft below its historical daily median. 
•    The Little Colorado River well Priest Draw East is at 81.74 ft, which is 14.2 ft below its historical daily median. The Little Colorado River well Priest Draw West is at 175.54 ft, which is 3.83 below its historical daily median. This well set a new record low in October 2025. Minimal change in water levels are expected until spring snowmelt.
•    The Santa Cruz River well Pantano Wash South is at 53.27 ft which is 1.11 ft below the historical daily median. There was a small fall recovery but was limited by dry the monsoon. The Arivaca R4 water levels continue to remain well below average and have been below historical daily median since 2020. Depth-to-water at this well is 15.41 ft which is 5.1 ft below the historical daily median. This well typically see a bit of recovery in winter–spring, but outlook is limited under La Niña conditions. 
•    San Pedro River wells: Three Links Ranch well have remained below the historical daily median since November 2022. It is currently at 35.39 ft, which is about 2.52 ft below the historical daily median. Baumkichner is at 37.6 ft which is 3.25 ft below median. This well benefited from wet fall increasing water levels a little over a foot but it still remains below it’s historical daily median. 
•    Leslie Canyon well located at Whitewater Draw is at 9.94 ft which is at it’s median. There was a strong fall recovery at this well and there is potential for further gains.
•    Contact: Andrew Muniz, Arizona Department of Water Resources. See ADWR Drought Index Wells data in the Arizona Groundwater Site Inventory (GWSI) website.

Additional Agency Updates:
• AZ State Climate Office: The AZ State Climate Office has their next webinar is continuing webinars on the 3rd Thursday of every month (10-10:30am MST) which provides an interesting overview of Arizona's weather and climate - Contact Erinanne Saffell or sign up here.
• Drought Interagency Coordinating Group: Last met on November 12, 2025, from 10:00am-12:00pm and unanimously recommended that both state drought declarations remain in place. The summary and presentations for that meeting can be found on the ADWR ICG webpage.
• Arizona Water Awareness Month Festival: Mid-April date will be announced in the coming weeks.
• Next MTC Meeting is tentatively scheduled for Tuesday, April 14, 2026, at 10am Arizona Time. Contact [email protected] with questions.