Be aware now more than ever: A strong summer monsoon season could be in the offing

Few weather stories in 2026 have attracted public attention quite like the approaching Super El Niño, the condition bringing rapidly warming waters into the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Depending on who you talk to, this so-called Super El Niño either could bring dramatically wet conditions to the Southwest or could just sort of go meh! and produce scant moisture, ala the bone-dry 2016 El Niño. There’s just no way of knowing for sure.

But missed in much of the media coverage of this still-developing Super El Niño is a condition forming up now off the California Baja. 

News about that condition, which could help prompt a strong summer monsoon season, particularly later in August and September, arrives just as the National Weather Service, in partnership with multiple state and federal agencies, including ADWR, is announcing Monsoon Awareness Week 2026.

Awareness of the destructive potential of our region’s often powerful summer storms is always important. But this year? More than ever.

There’s a lot of warm water out there, observed National Weather Service meteorologist Mark O’Malley recently. And that’s actually a good sign for us in terms of producing desperately needed moisture in our drought-plagued region.

It could be a source area for moisture coming up from the Baja into the American Southwest during the summer monsoon season, said O’Malley.

With the warm water, we can easily bring up the moisture once we get into the proper circulation pattern.  In addition to possibly enhancing the summer monsoons, the warm Baja-region water could also encourage tropical development come this fall and going into the winter.

It’s not a guarantee, he added. But it has happened before in developing El Niño situations.

As it has annually in recent years, the National Weather Service is partnering with the National Park Service, Arizona Department of Emergency and Military Affairs, Environmental Quality, Health Services, Insurance and Financial Institutions, Transportation, Public Safety, as well as with ADWR to promote severe weather preparedness. 

Monsoon Awareness Week is held annually to highlight the importance of being prepared for Arizona’s severe weather, extreme heat, and flooding. The monsoon season, which runs from June 15-September 30, is associated with thunderstorms that produce lightning, strong winds, and heavy rains. 

A monsoon thunderstorm can pose multiple threats to life and property including deadly lightning, localized flash flooding, and dust storms that reduce visibility and cause unhealthy air quality.

Because monsoon season spans the hottest months of the Arizona summer, it is also important to recognize the dangers of extreme heat and the symptoms of heat-related illnesses such as dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke. Whenever possible, reduce exposure to the sun and heat during peak hours.