Sunset over the Arizona desert with mountains in the background, and three saguaro in the mid-ground bathing in the sunset

A “glimmer of hope” brightens Arizona’s moisture outlook following a very dry winter season

Published
May 22, 2025
The ICG is comprised of state, federal and non-governmental organizations, this group meets twice a year to evaluate drought conditions and consider recommendations to the governor.

As dry and discouraging as much of the 2024-2025 winter has been for the water supply in the Southwest, a glimmer of hope for wetter days ahead is emerging, according to research from the National Weather Service.

I’m going to bring a glimmer of hope here – but just a glimmer, said NWS chief meteorologist Mark O’Malley to the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group (ICG), which twice annually makes recommendations to the Arizona governor about their expectations for continuing drought conditions.

The reason for that hope, said O’Malley, is because the lengthy La Niña atmospheric condition that brought months of dry, warm conditions to the Southwest has dissipated, for the time being, at least.

We’re looking at a ‘neutral’ summer, explained O’Malley. This is important for the summer monsoon – the warmer the waters are off the Baja, the better for the monsoon moisture.

He added: Recent monsoon rainfall following dry La Niña has been quite good. O’Malley noted, however, that it is the nature of monsoons that some regions of the state may largely miss out on the summer rainstorms.

Wetter though the approaching monsoon season may be, it likely will be warmer than average, as well, said O’Malley. Odds favor a warmer than average summer based on modeling, but especially trends over the past 30 to 50 years.

An animated graphic depicting the sea surface temperatures that indicate the dissipation of "La Niña" atmospheric conditions. Image courtesy of NOAA

The Drought Interagency Coordinating Group meets twice annually and serves as an advisory body to the Governor. Comprised of state, federal and non-governmental organizations, the Group provides a mechanism to coordinate and integrate drought planning and management on all lands within Arizona. ADWR Director Tom Buschatzke serves as the group’s co-chair.

Unsurprisingly, the group voted at the May 20 Spring meeting to urge Governor Hobbs to continue the State’s drought declaration, which has been in effect for over two decades.

Dr. Erinanne Saffell, the Arizona State Climatologist, reviewed the previous six months of precipitation, which – again, unsurprisingly – wasn’t especially good.

The winter season kicked off extremely warm, noted Dr. Saffell, with a very strong heat wave at the beginning of October. December was hottest December on record, she observed, and “October was the hottest October on record.” The winter season, overall, was the fourth driest on record.

Recorded precipitation over a six month period. Image courtesy of Arizona State Climate Office

The result? To date, moisture stands at 38 percent of long-term precipitation and extreme drought covers 57 percent of Arizona.

Even if we are looking an exceptional monsoon season, we are still going to be at the lower end of average precipitation, she said.

Also on the relatively positive side, Stephen Flora of Salt River Project provided an update on conditions on the Salt and Verde river watersheds, which, he said, are still benefitting from the enormous snowpack of two winters ago.

We rely on these very wet years to refill the system, explained Flora. This winter, as everyone knows, we’re in one of those extreme dry winters.

Still, he observed, even though this has been a very dry winter, this is the third above-normal March in a row that we’ve seen.