Here we go again: Drought Coordinating Group concludes we’re not out of the clutches of long-term drought just yet

Recovery from a long-term drought in an arid region almost never occurs on a straight line, and the current drought conditions facing Arizona are proof of that. After one truly boffo winter-moisture season and one pretty good season, Arizona and the Southwest overall appear headed back into the drought conditions we have come to know oh so well.

Those were the conclusions of the Arizona Drought Interagency Coordinative Group, which met on November 4 and concluded that for at least the next six months, the drought is here to stay. 

The ICG is an advisory body to the governor on Arizona drought issues. Comprised of state, federal and non-governmental organizations, including tribes, this group meets twice a year to evaluate drought conditions and consider recommendations to the governor. It currently is co-chaired by ADWR Director Tom Buschatzke and Gabe Lavine of the Arizona Division of Emergency Management. It has met bi-annually since 2006. 

Arizona State Climatologist Erinanne Saffell provided the panel with a report on Water Year 2024, which ended “really hot and really dry.” It was, she said, the 32nd driest water year on record, and, since 1994, two-thirds of Arizona’s water years have produced below-average precipitation.

Saffell reported that the nation’s Southwest is not the only region that is being severely encumbered by extreme weather. Some of the tools her office uses to determine Arizona’s statewide water precipitation are kept in Asheville, N.C.,  a community that made shocking headlines in September as the effects of Hurricane Helene devastated the area.

The early days of the 2024 Water Year, she reported, were largely dry and warm. However, several storm systems in December brought a great deal of precipitation. Also, several storm systems in February resulted in that month being the 24th wettest February on record.

Then summer arrived. For a summer that achieved notoriety nationwide as a furiously hot one in the American Southwest, it actually kicked off pretty wet – “we actually ended with a wet June,” said Saffell, “which is overall not a lot of precipitation but wet for June.”

Summer monsoon activity, she added, was strong in some areas, but overall the season ended as the 17th driest on record and the hottest June through September period on record.

By the end, “moderate to severe short-term drought had returned to 40 percent of the state,” said Saffell, including the hottest September on record.

It set a record for the longest record-breaking heat wave in the U.S, expanding extreme long-term drought across much of the state.
Next came the weather outlook for Winter 2024-2025 provided by Mark O’Malley of the National Weather Service. 

“The big player this term may be an emerging La Niña,” said O’Malley, “although there is a lot of uncertainty about how strong it will be and how long this La Niña cycle will hang around.”

Modeling indicates that there is a 70 percent chance of seeing a weak and brief La Niña developing over the winter, he said, while emphasizing the uncertainty about how long the system would persist.

“If we get this La Niña,” he said, “it should be weak and it should be rather brief, but it may not have any influence on the larger atmospheric flow overall.”

O’Malley acknowledged that, overall, La Niña conditions do tend to result in drier than normal seasons.

In terms of winter temperatures, “if I were betting, I would certainly be betting on average to above average. I certainly wouldn’t be betting on anything like what occurred two years ago” when the Southwest experienced a very cold and wet winter. Many of the driest winters on record occurred during La Niña conditions, he said.

Examining the Colorado River Basin overall, O’Malley noted that “there is some hope” that the Upper Basin of the river system could see wetter-than-normal precipitation this winter.

O’Malley said that the limited summer rainfall and the extremely hot and prolonged temperatures are having a serious impact on soil moisture in the region. 

“Even with an exceptional amount of rainfall, the excessive heat is drying out our topsoil of moisture.” That condition could detrimentally impact spring runoff from the Colorado River system.

The panel determined that the overall drought conditions are not improving, and concluded that they should send a letter to the governor recommending that the on-going drought declaration should be kept in place.

“The trends are certainly going in a hot and dry direction,” said panel co-chair Tom Buschatzke. “We can’t expect much of a turnaround from where this drought is heading.”