Anyone shocked? Drought panel recommends – again – that drought emergency status in Arizona continue

It was the one thing that nearly everyone attending the Spring meeting of Arizona’s panel of drought analysts wanted to know:

Will the approaching El Niño condition in the eastern Pacific Ocean – a strong Super El Niño, in fact – bring enough moisture to kickstart an end to the region’s long, long drought?

The answer came clear and concise: Maybe. Or maybe not.

The prospect of a strong El Niño is pretty rock solid. Already developing, in fact. It's whether the El Niño will bring the Southwest a lot of moisture that's iffy

It's very high confidence actually, said National Weather Service meteorologist Mark O’Malley about the developing El Niño condition. Normally in the spring we are in a predictive barrier where there's a lot of uncertainty. This year is the exception. We are looking at basically all the models that we use showing an El Niño.

So, the condition that typically brings a long, deep warm-water condition to the Pacific Ocean – a condition that often brings moisture with it - is developing. It is strong. It looks like it will last a long time.

But will it bring moisture in sufficient amounts to the Southwest and the Mountain West to impact drought conditions that have devastated runoff volumes in the Colorado River system?

Well, again, maybe.

Strong and very strong (El Niño conditions) don't necessarily mean bigger impacts for us, said O’Malley. 2016 was a very strong El Niño and we didn't really see that much happen in Arizona.

According to the NWS forecasts, the strong El Niño condition also brings with it a 46 percent probability that Summer 2026 will prove to be hotter than normal. Like we haven’t seen that before.

Unsurprisingly, the predictions for atmospheric conditions going into the next six months, combined with  a report from Arizona State Climatologist Dr. Erinanne Saffell on the recent winter conditions, which were often much hotter and drier than normal, the panel, co-chaired by ADWR Director Tom Buschatzke, opted to recommend that the Governor continue with the state’s drought emergency declaration.

The ICG is an advisory group to the Arizona Governor composed of over 20 federal state agencies and tribes that considers whether to recommend the continuation of a drought declaration to the Governor.

That is its formal function. Additionally, the biannual meetings of the ICG also serve as perhaps the premier analysis of weather and precipitation conditions in Arizona and the Southwest for the six-month period immediately preceding the meeting and for projections and expectations for weather and precipitation for the coming six months. Additionally the meetings provide briefings on conditions on the Salt River Project watershed and on the conditions of state and tribal forests.