Rebuttal to the Kyl Center's Colorado River Claim
On June 2, the Kyl Center for Water Policy published a Colorado River Update that suggests Arizona and California have been remiss in their respective conservation efforts this year.
In case you missed it, the Center stated, among other items, that (e)ven as lava rather than snow melts off of the Western Slope, according to the latest Bureau estimates Arizona and California combined may use around 200,000 acre-feet more water in 2025 than in 2024. Um, guys?
It is unsurprising that, with only one sentence devoted to such a complex topic, crucial context is lost. The post misses the remarkable, much bigger, story entirely: Arizona and California were responsible for unprecedented levels of conservation in the two years prior to 2025.
The three years in the span from 2020 through 2022 were among the lowest Colorado River inflows on record, at the end of the driest 23-year (2000-2022) period on record. The federal Bureau of Reclamation responded to this period of distressed hydrology by posting a Notice of Intent to Prepare a Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) to the December 2007 Record of Decision for the 2007 Interim Guidelines. The SEIS revisited operating guidelines of the River due to the critically low reservoir elevations and the potential for worsening drought, which could threaten critical infrastructure and public health and safety.
During the Spring of 2023, the Lower Basin States of Arizona, California and Nevada answered the SEIS by developing an alternative that took advantage of one-time funding made available by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The Lower Basin alternative conserved three million acre-feet of Colorado River water through to the end of 2026. This three million acre-feet, one-half of which would occur during 2023 and 2024, would be accomplished by verified, physical, reductions in use. This conservation was accomplished through voluntary, compensated reductions. With this conservation emphasis, the Lower Basin alternative was accepted by Reclamation as the Preferred Alternative and adopted in the Record of Decision.
Arizona and the other Lower Basin States delivered. In 2023, the Lower Basin consumptively used 5.8 million acre-feet, which was the lowest volume since 1984. While the Lower Basin used slightly more water the following year, 6.1 million acre-feet, this was perhaps an even more impressive outcome given the hydrology in 2024 was significantly poorer than the comparative bonanza hydrology of 2023. Arizona and California have delivered on their commitments by conserving unprecedented volumes to support the Colorado River system. This effort is a continuation of Arizona’s commitment to conserve, which has produced 4.6 million acre-feet of additional water for the Colorado River since 2014.
The implementation of the Lower Basin alternative provided much needed time and space for the negotiations for Reclamation’s Post-2026 operating guidelines. Given the extraordinary actions taken by the Lower Basin States in 2023 and 2024, the Center’s comparison of the projected 2025 consumptive use based on water orders, which are traditionally adjusted downward by water users, relative to the verified use in 2024 is glib.
Arizona has a good story to tell, and we are pleased to set the record straight by providing needed context.