Is the snowpack party over? Arizona’s drought panel sees drier times ahead

It wasn’t exactly the news anyone wanted to hear, but the West’s two-year snowpack party looks like it may be coming to an end for a while.

According to a report from the National Weather Service’s lead forecaster, the Southwest is in line for the effects of a strong “La Nina” condition in the eastern Pacific Ocean, indicating drier-than-normal months to come.

“We’re seeing the first vestiges of a La Nina effect now,” said Mark O’Malley of the National Weather Service at a meeting of the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group on Tuesday. “It’s going to be the largest climate driver of the next 12 months.”

The Interagency Coordinating Group (ICG) is an advisory body to the Governor on Arizona drought issues, co-chaired by the ADWR Director.

It’s comprised of state, federal and non-governmental organizations, and meets twice a year to evaluate drought conditions in Arizona and across the West and to consider recommendations to the governor. 

To exactly no one’s surprise, the ICG panelists chose to recommend to Governor Hobbs that the state’s Drought Emergency Declaration be continued for at least until the next meeting of the panel six months from now.

“My viewpoint is that we’ll be recommending to the Governor to continue the Drought Declaration,” said ADWR Director Tom Buschatzke at the meeting’s end as he watched panelists nod in agreement.

Arizona has had a Drought Emergency Declaration in effect since June 1999 and a Drought Declaration has been in effect since May 2007.

The U.S. Southwest has experienced two consecutive healthy seasons of moisture, including a near-record setting 2022-2023 winter snowpack season, as well as coastal storms that brought dozens of "atmospheric rivers." Now, the forecasters say that we could be facing a dry spell. How likely is it?  Alas, their computer modelling projections are telling them that it is looking pretty certain. 

“We’re seeing fairly good agreement in models,” observed O’Malley. “Normally we see uncertainty. We see that July, August and September will be dipping into La Nina and in the fall we’ll be falling into a full La Nina state."

The region is looking at a “better than 80 percent chance of a full La Nina in 2024-2025 Winter,” he said, with the odds tilted in favor of above normal temperatures. 

The Phoenix area is looking at a 60 percent chance of above normal temperatures this summer, a trend the south-central part of the state has been experiencing for a long time. 

“Last summer was quite warm and there is no sign of this slowing down anytime soon,” he said.

On the plus side, O’Malley said Arizona can anticipate “a fairly average monsoon” in terms of rainfall, but that, overall, a La Nina winter produces below average water years and warmer temperatures.