The popular theory about an “El Nino” condition in the eastern Pacific Ocean is that it often encourages the production of a lot of winter rain and snow in the southern United States

The operative word here is “often.”

What a difference a year makes! 

A year ago, all the water talk in the West was about the instability of the Colorado River system, the dangerously low levels that water stored in Lake Mead and Lake Powell were reaching, and about the vital importance of conserving our water supplies.

Recently Arizona Water News asked Arizona State Climatologist Erinanne Saffell, as well as Mark O’Malley, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service, to provide some expert analysis of the spate of early-to-mid-winter storms that have made for a surprisingly wet winter in the West thus far.

The news in recent weeks has included a deluge of headlines reflecting what millions of people across the country are wondering about (and hoping for):

Have the astonishing storms that have swept across the West since mid-December vanquished the drought at last?

As the saying goes, very few things in life are guaranteed. Nevertheless, that short list of life’s guarantees just got a wee bit longer:

The chances that the panel of experts that analyzes Arizona’s drought status would recommend a “drought’s over!” finding this fall were about as close to zero as you could get.

The State panel charged with making recommendations to Arizona’s Governor about drought status met early in May and concluded – to absolutely no one’s surprise – that Arizona remains locked in the chronic drought conditions that have plagued the Southwest for more than two decades.

Unfortunately, it gets worse than that. Indications are that the mountain snowpack expected to accumulate during the approaching fall and winter may prove to be as disappointing as the last two.

How long has Arizona been in drought?